The nexus between Global Warming, Economic Growth, and Cereal Production in Egypt

Document Type : Original Article

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Department of Economics - Faculty of Management Sciences - October University for Modern Sciences and Arts (MSA)

Abstract

This study aims to examine the connection between global Warming, economic growth, and cereal Production in Egypt in the period from 1960 – 2022. The data sample consists of temperatures' annual average mean, GDP per capita growth (annual %) and cereal production (metric tons) data from the World Bank’s official website. This study employs, the Granger causality test and an augmented autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) test.
The main findings are; a positive significant impact of global warming, on GDP in the short run, while an insignificant impact of global warming on cereal production in the short run, however in the long run global warming has significant & positive impacts on both GDP and cereal Production, the study contributes to the fields of Environment & economy by detecting the influence of global warming on both food production and economy. Based on these results, the study offers significant policy implications such as technology adaptation options that may find beneficial and affordable, climate-smart crop varieties—those resistant to heat and drought—should be made available, improvement of agricultural practices, farmers should be educated and guided, and policies have to modify to more effective in regulating prices.

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